19Apr
Yesterday,Elicit Pioneer Investors talked of what seems to be a "Mar-a-Lago Accord" in the offing.
It's been fourteen days since "Liberation Day" (reciprocal tariff announcements). And it has been said repeatedly by the Mr.Trump's administration that over 75 countries are clamoring to do a deal.
But no deals done. Why?
Are they planning on doing a grand coordinated deal, all at once (and probably over a weekend)? Maybe.
What would it look like, based on what's been guided by key Mr.Trump advisors: the SeeSaw Tariffs get slashed, in exchange for countries opening up their markets, boosting their defense spending, and committing to buy more from the U.S., invest in American manufacturing, and buy our Treasuries -- and isolate China.
If we look at the behavior of gold and the dollar, the market seems to be sniffing out such a deal, to include an agreement to devalue the dollar.
Gold is up 13% since Trump's 90-day pause on tariffs just one week ago. The dollar is down 4%.
That said, in a prepared speech last week, Mr.Trump's top economist (Mr.Stephen Miran) dismissed the conventional economic view that trade deficits get fixed, naturally, through currency depreciation. Not when you have the world reserve currency.
Instead, he views tariffs as the solution -- not currency manipulation.
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