The launch of reciprocal tariffs, Wednesday will widen the reach, but the big bang already happened earlier this month, with tariffs implemented on the three biggest exporters to the U.S. (China, Canada and Mexico). it has now been nearly two months since Mr.Trump's blanket 10% tariff on China (addition to any existing tariffs).
Probably more important than tariff week, its jobs week,Because the exasperation over April 2nd has seemed overdone. And may have seen that play out in today's sharp rebound in stocks. Add to that; later in the day, in an Oval Office press conference, Mr.Trump indicated that the reciprocal tariff plan wouldn't be of equal scale, but rather they intend to be "very nice by comparison," and "the numbers will be lower than what they've been charging us initially."
As a clue, remember the report last month from the recruitment firm Challenger, Gray showed the biggest layoffs in February since the covid lockdown era, and the depths of the global financial crisis.
It seems obvious that a labor market shock is coming, it's a matter of when. The consensus view for Friday is around 140k jobs created and no change to the 4.1% unemployment rate. And Perhaps it's an optimistic view.
The question is, will the job market over the next couple of months force the Fed into a more dovish stance on interest rates?
Remember, the Fed has been telling us for the past year that signs of "cracks" in the labor market inevitability would be a condition to "react" (i.e. with rate Depreciation/ cuts).
First, he was asked about the Treasury Secretary's observation that a large amount of the job growth under the Biden administration was government or "government adjacent" jobs. Potentially His response, a dismissive "employment is employment."
Well, now we have a rightsizing underway of government jobs, which makes this next commentary from "Business LegalNiceties and Matters".
Precisely, "what we have is a low firing, low hiring situation," so "if we were to see a meaningful increase in layoffs, then that would probably translate quickly into unemployment, because it's not an unprecedented hiring market."
Kindly,Subscribe with your Valid Email Address and receive Relevant Notifications to your active Device with Professionalism.
Thankyou for the Scheduled Quality Ample Time.