15Apr
According to NASA, the probability that the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth on December 22, 2032, has doubled to 2.3%. The celestial body has an estimated diameter of 40 to 90 meters and has been classified as Level 3 on the Torino Scale due to the potential risk. This means that a localized, yet significant, impact is possible.
Observations of the asteroid will continue until April 2025, before it becomes too faint to be tracked further. Its orbit cannot be analyzed in detail again until 2028. In addition, the James Webb Space Telescope is expected to provide more precise data on its size and composition in March 2025 to better assess the impact risk.
If YR4 does indeed hit Earth in 2024, the impact could be comparable to the Tunguska event of 1908, in which an explosion over Siberia destroyed 80 million trees over an area of 2,150 square kilometers.
However, scientists emphasize that the asteroid's composition would be crucial for the consequences—a rocky asteroid would likely explode in the atmosphere, while an iron-rich body could leave a crater.
Experts around the world are closely monitoring the asteroid's trajectory to collect new data and further assess the actual risk.
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