Unlike much of the past 15 years, global governments and central banks are no longer aligned. Monetary policy is diverging. Shared global goals have given way to national interests. This divergence will likely accelerate, especially when Mr.Trump hand-selects a new Fed Chair. And that could happen sooner than expected. Which Maybe bad news for Europe.

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2 min read

Just last week, in prepared remarks to Congress, he cited the June and July inflation numbers to View, to see how much of the tariffs are being passed through to consumers. The July inflation data won't be reported until August, he was clearly not giving signals that a July cut was on the table.

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3 min read

The recent NATO Summit in The Hague resulted in a declaration that sets a new benchmark for defense investment, emphasizing increased spending on core defense requirements and related investments. Allies committed to investing 5% of their GDP in defense, with a breakdown of 3.5% for core requirements and 1.5% for related investments. The declaration also reaffirmed the Alliance's support for Ukraine and highlighted the importance of boosting defense industrial production.

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5 min read

A Professionally outspoken Speech,Monday, given by succulent Mrs. Michelle Bowman, the recently confirmed Vice Chair for (Bank) Supervision, was the bigger news.Bowman's speech was a major signal that bank regulators are open to reforming leverage-based capital constraints, soon.

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2 min read

The Fed held rates steady again;And for the second time Consistent, in their Summary of Economic Projections, they revised growth DOWN and inflation UP,June,19,2025. And while the median projection for rate cuts by year-end was unchanged at 50 basis points (two cuts), the weighted-average target from the 19 Fed officials is now 4.04%. This tells us the consensus Fed expectations are actually closer to just one cut this year, not two.

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6 min read

This Potential reports showed retail sales growth was negative of the month June 17, 2025. Industrial production was negative on the month. The National Association of Home Builders Index came in at housing recession levels.

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2 min read

Six years ago, almost to the day, there was an ebb and flow of U.S./China trade negotiations. The Fed was stubbornly holding rates high in the face of falling (sub 2%) inflation with a monetary policy meeting approaching. The U.S. was executing a "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran.

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2 min read
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