GLOBAL BISGNES PERSPECTIVES NOTEWORTHY》

Just last week, in prepared remarks to Congress, he cited the June and July inflation numbers to View, to see how much of the tariffs are being passed through to consumers. The July inflation data won't be reported until August, he was clearly not giving signals that a July cut was on the table.

The recent NATO Summit in The Hague resulted in a declaration that sets a new benchmark for defense investment, emphasizing increased spending on core defense requirements and related investments. Allies committed to investing 5% of their GDP in defense, with a breakdown of 3.5% for core requirements and 1.5% for related investments. The declaration also reaffirmed the Alliance's support for Ukraine and highlighted the importance of boosting defense industrial production.

A Professionally outspoken Speech,Monday, given by succulent Mrs. Michelle Bowman, the recently confirmed Vice Chair for (Bank) Supervision, was the bigger news.Bowman's speech was a major signal that bank regulators are open to reforming leverage-based capital constraints, soon.

The Fed held rates steady again;And for the second time Consistent, in their Summary of Economic Projections, they revised growth DOWN and inflation UP,June,19,2025. And while the median projection for rate cuts by year-end was unchanged at 50 basis points (two cuts), the weighted-average target from the 19 Fed officials is now 4.04%. This tells us the consensus Fed expectations are actually closer to just one cut this year, not two.

This Potential reports showed retail sales growth was negative of the month June 17, 2025. Industrial production was negative on the month. The National Association of Home Builders Index came in at housing recession levels.

Six years ago, almost to the day, there was an ebb and flow of U.S./China trade negotiations. The Fed was stubbornly holding rates high in the face of falling (sub 2%) inflation with a monetary policy meeting approaching. The U.S. was executing a "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran.

U.S./China trade talks went into a third day today.Mr.Bessent, the lead U.S. negotiator, was back in the U.S. testifying on Capitol Hill about the budget. On China, he called the negotiations "successful." And he said he was "confident" that the negotiations will bring balance to the ''Economic Relationship''.

For the Fed,to show more of the same: tame inflation.The inflation data has become less important than the inflation threat of Tariffs. their Data-Dependent, until it doesn't fit their preferred Policy stance.

The Manner expantiated yesterday of the three big developments that have taken place over the past several days. Among them, the breakdown of the deal behind the U.S./China 90-day tariff reduction, and the resulting Potential for a return to an effective embargo Trade with China. Mr.Trump and Mr.Xi shook the Waves with "TRADE DEAL" Communication.

Over a weekend in early May, there was a de-escalation with China in the form of a 90-day tariff reduction. That catalyst has returned stocks to positive territory for the year, And for the best May performance since 1990. But, over the past several days, both the U.S. and China have accused each other of violating the trade deal.

The Fed continued Decisively to hold rates up (135 basis points above the neutral rate), despite inflation falling back to just a Tenth of a Percentage Point from its Target. And on $36 trillion national debt, every percentage point, in excess of the interest rate necessary to keep prices stable and employment full, is unecessarily costing the country hundreds of billions of dollars in interest (this year!).

The other part of the dual mandate, which the Fed says "stands on equal footing with price stability" and maximum employment. We'll get the most recent employment data later this week. The last reading of the unemployment rate was 4.2%. What's considered maximum employment? It turns out, a Fed Governor (Mr.Kugler) gave a speech of "Assessing Maximum Employment" last month. What was her assessment? For the current situation, she said maximum employment is "in the vicinity of 4.2%."