Experts of `Legal Business StockTrade' expantiated of U.S. Government bond market previous days[three] where there has been increased scrutiny about supply outpacing demand; Both related to continued government deficit spending[Expenditure].
SEE MOREOver the past two weeks Predictions signaling by Moody's that a U.S. Credit Downgrade was actually Bekoning a coming. They Assigned a "negative outlook" to the rating in 2023. That, by their definition, increased the risk of a rating downgrade "over the next one to two years." Two years Estimated Probability,Near the end of that time window. And on cue, in late March they telegraphed the downgrade with a warning that U.S. fiscal strength had "deteriorated further."
SEE MOREExperts further explanation; The level of the 30-year is what is getting the market's attention. And the level has everything to do with ``Fed policy''. Precisely Not only does the ''Fed'' continue to hold short term rates above 4%, 200 basis points above the rate of inflation (PCE), they've spent the past week dropping hawkish commentary.
SEE MOREPresident Trump is building a new global coalition of trade partnerships and mutually beneficial relationships around re-industrialization, including abundant and affordable energy (access to U.S. energy), AI infrastructure and innovation (access to U.S. chips and compute), and military commerce (access to U.S. armament and security) -- all in pursuit of each countries respective national interests.
SEE MOREThe V in stocks gets us back to the April 2nd date, when Trump first revealed details on broad-based tariffs, but it doesn't get us back to this March 25th day, denoted in the chart. What happened ,March 25th? Moody's warned that U.S. fiscal strength had "deteriorated further."
SEE MOREGrowing U.S. commercial revenue by 19% from the prior quarter, and guiding around 70% year-over-year growth for 2025. That's a doubling of the growth rate for this time last year -- so growth is accelerating. Palantir's new commercial business called the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) has only been in existence two years, and is just now taking hold, as (mainly U.S.) companies are scrambling to figure out how to integrate generative AI into their businesses.
SEE MOREAnother surge moment has just started;Which is of AI agents, now automating software development, marketing, data analysis, infrastructure design,and tasks once handled only by highly skilled professionals.
SEE MOREEarlier this month the influence of central Bank action on turning points in Trade. Each turning point over the past five years was driven by some degree of central bank "dial turning" (i.e. monetary policy adjustment). And that's consistent with the history of major stock market turning points -- which tend to be directly influenced by central banks.
SEE MOREYesterday,Elicit Pioneer Investors talked of what seems to be a "Mar-a-Lago Accord" in the offing. It's been fourteen days since "Liberation Day" (reciprocal tariff announcements). And it has been said repeatedly by the Mr.Trump's administration that over 75 countries are clamoring to do a deal.
SEE MOREWhile stocks have sharply corrected under tariff fears and the Fed's missteps on policy, make no mistake the AI revolution continues to charge forward. Over the weekend, President Trump administration signaled exemptions for critical AI inputs from China, while Nvidia announced it has started production on its most advanced AI chips in Arizona, and will be building "supercomputers" in Texas in 12-15 months.
SEE MOREWhat did Mr.Jamie Dimon have to say about liquidity conditions now? He made the same case for regulatory change, for this reason: so banks could intermediate more in the markets to provide stability, rather than the Fed. And by Fed involvement, he means more QE.
SEE MOREPresident Mr.Trump's "escalate to de-escalate" strategy is about drawing the rest of it's Allies inthe world back into alignment with the U.S., using the U.S. consumer as Tacticalism leverage.And then isolating China.
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